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It was eight weeks in the past when the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or a cause for the side's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six matches, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?

That’s a particularly tough question to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.

According to the data, twice all season have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened versus United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, bent just inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition registered more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
• The winger might become the player he showed during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine Rogers now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a vital England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.