A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
